How do you work out if a casino bonus is worth taking?

Compare the bonus amount against the expected loss of clearing it. Expected loss is the turnover you must actually wager multiplied by the house edge of the game. If the bonus is larger than that expected loss the offer is positive expected value, before accounting for the risk of busting first.

What is game weighting on a wagering requirement?

Weighting is the percentage of each wager that counts toward the requirement. Slots usually count 100%, while table games often count 10% or less. At 10% weighting you must wager ten times as much real money to clear the same requirement, which multiplies your expected loss.

Are casino welcome bonuses ever positive EV?

Some are, on paper. A low multiplier on a high-RTP game with 100% weighting can produce a positive expected value. Most large headline bonuses are not, because the multiplier is high enough that expected loss exceeds the bonus. The calculator on this page shows which side of the line a specific offer falls on.

By Jay Calder·Updated September 2026

Wagering Requirement Calculator

Q: What does a 40x wagering requirement mean?

It means you must wager 40 times the qualifying amount before bonus funds can be withdrawn. On a $100 bonus with a bonus-only requirement, that is $4,000 of total turnover. If the requirement applies to deposit plus bonus, a $100 deposit and $100 bonus becomes $8,000.

A bonus is only worth what's left after you've paid the house edge to unlock it. This calculator turns a wagering requirement into the two numbers that actually matter: how much you have to wager, and how much you should expect to lose doing it.

Deposit amount ($)

Bonus received ($)

Wagering multiplier (x)

Requirement applies to

Game RTP (%)

Game weighting (%)

Average bet size ($)

How the maths works

Four steps, none of them complicated — which is rather the point, because the numbers stop looking generous once you write them down.

Step 1 — required turnover

turnover = qualifying amount × multiplier

The qualifying amount is either the bonus alone or the deposit plus bonus. That single distinction doubles the requirement on a 100% match, and it is the detail most often buried in the terms. A "40x" on deposit plus bonus is really an 80x on the bonus.

Step 2 — adjust for game weighting

actual wagering = turnover ÷ (weighting ÷ 100)

If a game counts 10%, every $100 you wager credits only $10 against the requirement, so you must put ten times as much money through the game. Weighting is the quietest way a requirement gets harder without the headline multiplier changing.

Step 3 — expected loss

expected loss = actual wagering × (1 − RTP ÷ 100)

The house edge is charged on every dollar wagered, not on your deposit. Wager $4,000 on a 96% RTP slot and you should expect to lose about $160 regardless of how the balance swings along the way.

Step 4 — the verdict

bonus EV = bonus − expected loss

Positive means the offer is theoretically worth taking. Negative means you are paying the casino for the privilege of receiving a bonus. The calculator also reports the break-even multiplier — the highest wagering requirement at which this offer would still be worth it.

What this model does not include

The calculation above is a straightforward expectation. Three things it deliberately leaves out, all of which push real outcomes worse than the number shown:

Risk of ruin. Expected loss assumes you complete the wagering. In practice you may bust before clearing it, which is the most common way a bonus ends. The smaller your balance relative to the required turnover, the more likely that is.
Max bet limits and game bans. Most bonus terms cap your bet size while a bonus is active and exclude certain games. Breaching either can void the bonus and any winnings with it.
Max cashout caps. Plenty of offers cap withdrawals at a multiple of the bonus. A cap turns the upper tail of outcomes flat, which lowers real EV below what this model reports.

Treat a positive number here as "not obviously bad" rather than as a green light. Variance, not expectation, is what you actually experience.

Typical wagering requirements

Multiplier	On a $100 bonus (bonus only)	Expected loss at 96% RTP	Verdict
10x	$1,000 turnover	$40	Clearly positive
20x	$2,000 turnover	$80	Positive
25x	$2,500 turnover	$100	Break-even
35x	$3,500 turnover	$140	Negative
40x	$4,000 turnover	$160	Negative
60x	$6,000 turnover	$240	Clearly negative

At 96% RTP and 100% weighting, the break-even point sits at 25x on a bonus-only requirement. Every multiplier above that is negative expected value before you account for cashout caps or the chance of busting. Since most advertised welcome offers sit between 35x and 45x, the headline number on a bonus is usually a cost, not a gift.

Frequently asked questions

What does a 40x wagering requirement mean?

You must wager 40 times the qualifying amount before bonus funds become withdrawable. On a $100 bonus that is $4,000 of turnover if the requirement is bonus-only, or $8,000 if it applies to deposit plus bonus.

Does a higher RTP always make a bonus better?

Yes, mechanically — expected loss scales directly with the house edge, so a 98% RTP game halves the cost of clearing versus a 96% game. The catch is that high-RTP games are frequently the ones excluded or weighted down in the bonus terms, which is not a coincidence.

Is it better to clear wagering with big bets or small bets?

Expected loss is identical either way, since it depends only on total turnover. Bet size changes variance, not expectation: larger bets mean fewer, swingier outcomes and a higher chance of both busting early and finishing well ahead. Max bet limits in the terms usually constrain this anyway.

Why do casinos offer bonuses at all if they are negative EV for players?

Because they are positive EV for the casino. The bonus is a marketing cost paid out of the edge collected on the turnover it generates, and the requirement is sized so that the expected edge exceeds the bonus. That is not dishonest in itself — it is just worth seeing the arithmetic before treating an offer as free money.

Note: This calculator is for education. Expected value describes long-run averages across many plays, not what will happen to you on any given session. Gambling carries real financial risk and most players lose. If gambling is affecting your life, support is available at BeGambleAware.

See also: the case opening EV calculator for CS2 and skin sites, and the provably fair verifier for checking that a result was not tampered with.